Collaborative Research: Evolutionary and Comparative Models of the Demographic Transition

合作研究：人口转变的进化和比较模型

• 批准号: 0924436
• 负责人: Mary Towner
• 金额: $ 7.15万
• 依托单位: Oklahoma State University
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2010
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2010-01-15 至 2013-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=0924436&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Collaborative; Research; Evolutionary; Comparative; Models

Dr. Mary Shenk (University of Missouri) and Dr. Mary Towner (Oklahoma State University) will use nested datasets from Matlab, Bangladesh, to examine evolutionary and comparative models of the demographic transition, a global phenomenon in which high fertility and mortality are replaced by low fertility and mortality. Most research links the demographic transition to economic development, but the underlying mechanisms still inspire much interdisciplinary debate; as a unifying framework, evolutionary theory shows great potential for helping to clarify both the motivations and mechanisms involved. The goals of the project are to advance theoretical and empirical understanding of the demographic transition using evolutionary theory, and to provide the first comprehensive comparative analyses of key evolutionary and non-evolutionary models. These goals will be met through three specific aims: (1) use large-scale, longitudinal data from Bangladesh to evaluate three influential evolutionary models of the demographic transition, focusing on risk, parental investment, and cultural evolution; (2) use an evidence-based statistical approach to compare evolutionary models with their non-evolutionary counterparts; and (3) collect detailed new data on a subsample of the Matlab population to provide in-depth information to facilitate the comparison of multiple models.The demographic transition will have significant social impacts in the 21st century. High birthrates hinder economic development in poor nations, while population aging and low fertility undermine safety nets and contribute to social tensions in developed nations. Evolutionary approaches have the potential to revolutionize the study of demographic behavior, yet work in evolutionary demography has been limited in scope and is only familiar to a small community of scholars. This project aims to alter this pattern by testing evolutionary models using population-level data, comparing them to models from other fields, and publishing the results across disciplines. The project will address policy implications by disseminating findings to the study population, policy journals, and the development work community. It will also provide research training to students and forge durable ties between collaborating institutions.

玛丽·申克（Mary Shenk）博士（密苏里大学）和玛丽·汤纳（Mary Towner）（俄克拉荷马州立大学）将使用孟加拉国马特拉布（Matlab）的嵌套数据集来检查人口过渡的进化和比较模型，这是一种全球现象，其中高生育率和死亡率被替换通过低生育率和死亡率。大多数研究将人口过渡与经济发展联系起来，但是基本机制仍然激发了许多跨学科的辩论。作为一个统一的框架，进化论具有帮助阐明所涉及的动机和机制的巨大潜力。该项目的目标是使用进化论来促进对人口转变的理论和经验理解，并提供关键进化和非进化模型的首次全面比较分析。这些目标将通过三个具体目标实现：（1）使用孟加拉国的大规模纵向数据评估人口过渡的三种有影响力的进化模型，专注于风险，父母投资和文化进化； （2）使用基于证据的统计方法将进化模型与非进化模型进行比较； （3）收集有关MATLAB人群子样本的详细新数据，以提供深入的信息，以促进多种模型的比较。人口过渡将在21世纪产生重大的社会影响。高出生率阻碍了贫穷国家的经济发展，而人口老化和低生育率破坏了安全网，并导致发达国家的社会紧张局势。进化方法有可能彻底改变人口行为的研究，但是进化人口统计学的工作在范围上受到限制，并且只对一小群学者社区才熟悉。该项目旨在通过使用人群级数据测试进化模型，将其与其他领域的模型进行比较，并在学科中发布结果，从而改变这种模式。该项目将通过向研究人群，政策期刊和发展工作社区传播发现来解决政策的影响。它还将为学生提供研究培训，并在合作机构之间建立持久的关系。