Collaborative Research: MOD and TLS: A Predictive Simulation Model of Competitive Dynamics in Innovation

合作研究：MOD 和 TLS：创新竞争动态的预测模拟模型

• 批准号: 0914796
• 负责人: Risto Miikkulainen
• 金额: $ 19.01万
• 依托单位: University of Texas at Austin
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2009
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2009-09-01 至 2013-08-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=0914796&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Collaborative; Research; MOD; TLS; Predictive

This award is funded under the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 (Public Law 111-5). How does competition influence innovation? This project takes a unique approach to understand this question: It develops an evidence-based simulation platform to understand how competitive dynamics influences innovation. This approach contributes new knowledge to technology strategy and a transformative new tool for science and technology policy. Intellectual Merit: There are three main contributions. First, a computational multi-agent search theory is developed and evaluated for environments with complex interactions of competing agents. The results help understand search for innovation when multiple agents search simultaneously, and develop computational representations of it. Second, qualitative observations on innovation and competition are made through structured interviews in a real technology-based industry. The goal is to provide theoretically informed answers to an enduring question in technology strategy: What are the most effective firm-level innovation search strategies in competitive markets? Third, a software research tool called ASaP is developed by integrating insights from the computational and strategy components of this project. This simulation tool makes it possible to perform "live" simulations of industry data, similar to physical simulations in engineering. Scholars and public policy makers can use this tool to understand the ways in which their recommendations are likely to play out and therefore help design effective policies to manage competition and simultaneously promote innovation.Broader Impacts: The results of the project can be used not only by academics to analyze competition and innovation rigorously but also by business and policy analysts to improve innovativeness of firms and industries, and thus ultimately advance economic productivity. To foster such progress, the ASaP tool is made publicly available to scholars and practitioners through a website, thus lowering the barrier of entry to computational analysis in general, and predictive analysis of business data in particular. During the current difficult economic times, it is more important than ever to remain innovative, both to resist deeper downturn and to bring our technology-based economy back to a growth trajectory. The ASaP tool serves as a live model of the data, and thus can be used to identify the sequence of events that generated the data, and modified to find out what would have happened if some factors (such as supporting the livelihood of certain players in the industry over others) had been different. In essence, ASaP makes it possible to study the archival data interactively in laboratory-like experiments, and it can therefore lead to insights on science and technology policy that are not possible to obtain otherwise.

该奖项根据 2009 年《美国复苏和再投资法案》（公法 111-5）提供资金。竞争如何影响创新？该项目采用独特的方法来理解这个问题：它开发了一个基于证据的模拟平台来了解竞争动态如何影响创新。这种方法为技术战略贡献了新知识，并为科技政策提供了变革性的新工具。智力优点：主要有三个贡献。首先，针对具有复杂的竞争代理交互的环境，开发并评估了计算多代理搜索理论。结果有助于理解多个代理同时搜索时的创新搜索，并开发其计算表示。其次，通过对真实技术行业的结构化访谈对创新和竞争进行定性观察。目标是为技术战略中的一个持久问题提供理论上的答案：竞争市场中最有效的公司级创新搜索策略是什么？第三，通过整合该项目的计算和策略组件的见解，开发了名为 ASaP 的软件研究工具。该模拟工具可以对行业数据进行“实时”模拟，类似于工程中的物理模拟。学者和公共政策制定者可以使用此工具来了解他们的建议可能发挥作用的方式，从而帮助设计有效的政策来管理竞争并同时促进创新。 更广泛的影响：该项目的结果不仅可以用于学术界可以严格分析竞争和创新，商业和政策分析师也可以提高企业和行业的创新能力，从而最终提高经济生产力。为了促进这种进步，ASaP 工具通过网站向学者和从业者公开提供，从而降低了一般计算分析的进入门槛，特别是业务数据的预测分析。在当前经济困难时期，保持创新比以往任何时候都更加重要，既可以抵御更深层次的衰退，又可以使我们的技术型经济重回增长轨道。 ASaP 工具充当数据的实时模型，因此可用于识别生成数据的事件序列，并进行修改以找出如果某些因素（例如支持某些参与者的生计）会发生什么。该行业（与其他行业相比）有所不同。从本质上讲，ASaP 使得在类似实验室的实验中交互式研究档案数据成为可能，因此它可以带来对科学和技术政策的见解，这是其他方式无法获得的。