Regional and Global Impacts of Tropical Deforestation Under Increasing CO2 Concentrations on Mutliscale Eco-Hydro-Climatological Processes

二氧化碳浓度增加下热带森林砍伐对多尺度生态水文气候过程的区域和全球影响

• 批准号: 0902197
• 负责人: Roni Avissar
• 金额: $ 86.98万
• 依托单位: University of Miami
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Continuing Grant
• 财政年份: 2009
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2009-09-01 至 2015-08-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=0902197&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Regional; Global; Impacts; Tropical; Deforestation

Numerical experiments of tropical deforestation with general circulation models (GCMs) and Regional Climate Models (RCMs) show the importance of land-cover teleconnections in the climate system but ignore multiscale feedbacks of regional-global and Eco-Hydro-Climatological (EHC) processes. In parallel to these scientific investigations, the evaluation and improvement of the Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Model (OLAM) has continued. Unlike typical GCMs, OLAM is uniquely designed to simulate multiscale interactions with its unstructured grid that can change resolution in any part of the global domain, as well as its fully interactive vegetation dynamics parameterization. Both features are essential for understanding the intricate processes that govern land-atmosphere interactions (including vegetation dynamics, clouds, precipitation and radiative processes) in a changing climate.This project will understand and quantify the global EHC changes under a changing climate driven by increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration and deforestation of tropical regions. Specifically, the investigators use OLAM to address two main issues: (i) What are the impacts of evolving deforestation in the Amazon basin on the multiscale EHC processes and feedbacks (including fires and other ecosystem disturbances), can we explain them and quantify them? (ii) Are these impacts affected by climate change (triggered by increasing atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide)? In the numerical experiments to be conducted for this investigation, deforestation patterns will be derived from socio-economical scenarios of the Amazon basin development, and the carbon dioxide scenarios adopted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)will be used.The work will contribute to the evaluation and improvement of OLAM, which will help advance future climate research and operational weather prediction. It will be disseminated though seminars, lectures, teaching, and standard forums of publication. OLAM fulfills the criteria of a "community" model as it is freely available and supported. A post-doc will be trained and supported.

使用大气环流模型（GCM）和区域气候模型（RCM）进行的热带森林砍伐数值实验显示了土地覆盖遥相关在气候系统中的重要性，但忽略了区域-全球和生态水文气候（EHC）过程的多尺度反馈。在这些科学研究的同时，海洋-陆地-大气模型（OLAM）的评估和改进也在继续进行。与典型的 GCM 不同，OLAM 的独特设计是为了模拟与其非结构化网格的多尺度相互作用，该网格可以改变全局域任何部分的分辨率，以及完全交互式的植被动态参数化。这两个特征对于理解气候变化中控制陆地与大气相互作用的复杂过程（包括植被动态、云、降水和辐射过程）至关重要。该项目将了解并量化由大气增加驱动的气候变化下的全球 EHC 变化。二氧化碳浓度和热带地区森林砍伐。具体来说，研究人员使用 OLAM 来解决两个主要问题：（i）亚马逊流域不断发生的森林砍伐对多尺度 EHC 过程和反馈（包括火灾和其他生态系统干扰）有哪些影响，我们可以解释它们并量化它们吗？ (ii) 这些影响是否受到气候变化（由大气中二氧化碳浓度增加引发）的影响？在本次调查进行的数值实验中，森林砍伐模式将根据亚马逊流域开发的社会经济情景得出，并使用政府间气候变化专门委员会（IPCC）采用的二氧化碳情景。这项工作将为 OLAM 的评估和改进做出贡献，这将有助于推进未来的气候研究和业务天气预报。它将通过研讨会、讲座、教学和标准出版论坛进行传播。 OLAM 满足“社区”模型的标准，因为它是免费提供和支持的。博士后将得到培训和支持。