HSD: Collaborative Research: Development and Resilience of Complex Socioeconomic Systems: A Theoretical Model and Case Study from the Maya Lowlands

HSD：协作研究：复杂社会经济系统的发展和复原力：玛雅低地的理论模型和案例研究

• 批准号: 0827277
• 负责人: Bruce Winterhalder
• 金额: $ 16.12万
• 依托单位: University of California-Davis
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2008
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2008-09-15 至 2013-02-28
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=0827277&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: HSD; Collaborative; Research; Development; Resilience

Societies marked by administrative hierarchies, rulers, and high degrees of integration developed in multiple locations around the world beginning 8,000 years ago. The process was episodic and marked by frequent economic failure and political disintegration, in some instances in the context of abrupt climate change. This interdisciplinary research project will develop a human-landscape-climate model for the emergence and resilience of complex socioeconomic systems and will apply and test the predictions of the model with extant data and findings from new research in the tropical Maya lowlands of southern Belize. The project's primary goal is to model human behavioral responses to environmental transformation, whether abrupt or gradual, by linking together processes of settlement, resource exploitation, agricultural intensification, competition, and polity stability. The project aims to develop a general theoretical model that integrates population density and distribution, environmental suitability as a function of economic intensification and endogenous environmental change, and political exploitation. A secondary goal is to test this model at Uxbenka, a Maya polity that formed in southern Belize between from 4,000 to 1,500 years before the present (BP). Archaeological work in the region suggests that integrated, spatially extensive societies formed in the context of demographic expansion, agricultural intensification, environmental degradation, and eventual fragmentation. The available paleoclimatic data indicate that an abrupt decrease in rainfall played a role in the disintegration of certain polities from 2,100 BP to 1,800 BP. This episode was followed by the reintegration and proliferation of yet more complex societies after 1800 BP. Many of these collapsed completely at 1000 BP, again within the context of abrupt climate change. Extant data from a century of research in this region, complemented by new paleoenvironmental, archaeological, and ethnographic investigation in southern Belize will guide the construction and appraisal of models meant to capture the causes of these events.Climate change in the context of human-induced environmental degradation is an acute problem facing the increasingly interdependent global community of nearly six billion people. It presents difficult policy issues of great importance for contemporary societies. Climatic variability on multiple timescales can elicit a range of human responses that depend on the distribution and density of human populations, their modes of production, effects on environment, forms of political integration, and control via coercion or ideological manipulation by administrative hierarchies. General models capable of incorporating these complex interactions are essential for exploring the stability and vulnerability of complex socioeconomic systems. Southern Belize provides a well-researched environmental and cultural context for the interdisciplinary, empirical studies necessary to build and test such models and to appraise effective and ineffective responses. Along with academic and popular publications, the research team will develop education modules for primary and secondary schools in the U.S and Belize, provide teacher workshops and community outreach for sustainable development, and offer project-based interdisciplinary experiences for university students in the U.S. and Belize. Project data, analyses and models will be made available through an on-line archive. An award resulting from the FY 2008 NSF-wide competition on Human and Social Dynamics (HSD) supports this project. All NSF directorates and offices are involved in the coordinated management of the HSD competition and the portfolio of HSD awards.

从8，000年前开始，以行政等级，统治者和高度融合的标志为标志的社会。 在某些情况下，在突然的气候变化的背景下，这一过程是情节性的，并以经济失败和政治瓦解为标志。 该跨学科研究项目将开发一个人类景观气候模型，以实现复杂的社会经济系统的出现和韧性，并将通过现存的数据以及在伯利兹南部热带玛雅低地的新研究中应用和测试该模型的预测。 该项目的主要目标是通过将定居点，资源开发，农业强化，竞争和政治稳定的过程联系在一起，对人类对环境转型的行为反应进行建模。 该项目旨在开发一种一般的理论模型，该模型将人口密度和分布，环境适用性与经济强化和内源性环境变化以及政治剥削的函数相结合。 次要目标是在Uxbenka测试该模型，Uxbenka是一个在伯利兹（Southern Belize）的玛雅人政体，在现在的4,000至1,500年之间（BP）。 该地区的考古工作表明，在人口扩展，农业强化，环境退化和最终分裂的背景下形成的综合，空间广泛的社会。 可用的古气候数据表明，降雨的突然下降在某些政体从2,100 bp的分解到1,800 bp中发挥了作用。 这一集之后是1800 bp后更复杂的社会的重新融合和扩散。 其中许多在突然的气候变化的背景下再次完全以1000 bp倒塌。 伯利兹南部的新古环境，考古和民族志调查的补充，来自该地区一个世纪的研究的现有数据将指导旨在捕捉这些事件原因的模型的建设和评估。在人类引起的环境退化的背景下，人们对近乎二六尔尔元的全球社区越来越严重。 它提出了对当代社会非常重要的困难政策问题。 多个时间尺度上的气候变异性会引起一系列人类反应，这些反应取决于人口的分布和密度，其生产方式，对环境的影响，政治融合形式以及通过行政等级制度通过胁迫或意识形态操纵来控制。 能够合并这些复杂相互作用的通用模型对于探索复杂的社会经济系统的稳定性和脆弱性至关重要。 伯利兹南部为建立和测试这些模型并评估有效和无效的反应所需的跨学科的经验研究提供了经过精心研究的环境和文化背景。 与学术和受欢迎的出版物一起，研究团队将为美国和伯利兹的中小学开发教育模块，为可持续发展提供教师研讨会和社区外展，并为美国和伯利兹大学的大学生提供基于项目的跨学科体验。 项目数据，分析和模型将通过在线存档提供。 2008财年全民社会和社会动态竞赛（HSD）的奖项支持该项目。 所有NSF局和办公室都参与了HSD竞赛和HSD奖项组合的协调管理。