SBIR Phase II: Parts Forecasting for Configurable Products

SBIR 第二阶段：可配置产品的零件预测

• 批准号: 0723832
• 负责人: Roy Marsten
• 金额: $ 49.99万
• 依托单位: Emcien, Inc.
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2007
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2007-09-15 至 2011-08-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=0723832&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: SBIR; Phase; II; Parts; Forecasting

This SBIR Phase II project will develop a new methodology for parts forecasting for discrete manufacturing. Emcien is developing a software suite to enable a product manager to better manage a configurable manufactured product. This suite includes a method for forecasting the demand for a configurable product at the full configuration level of detail. This means forecasting unique configurations, each with an expected volume. The method depends on extracting customer buying patterns from the sales history for the product. The mathematical algorithms for extracting and representing these patterns, and forecasting using these patterns are the main contributions of the research. The set of parts needed to build a configurable product generally depends on combinations of options, so it is not possible to plan parts requirements from an aggregate forecast. By using a configuration level forecast, it is possible to expand each unique configuration into component parts, and then use the associated volumes to produce a complete parts forecast. American manufacturers are specializing in complex, configurable, high-end products, as mass produced commodity products move offshore. Allowing customers to customize a product results in significant numbers of alternative product configurations. This variety increases costs in many ways. One important way is the increased difficulty of planning parts requirements. The current practice of basing parts planning on a few popular variants leads to excess inventory of some parts and shortages of others. Excess inventory incurs both holding and obsolescence costs. Shortages can interrupt production and cause both lost sales and quality problems. Emcien has developed a methodology that, among many other benefits, can improve the accuracy of parts planning.

这个SBIR II期项目将开发一种用于离散制造的零件预测的新方法。 EMCIEN正在开发软件套件，以使产品经理能够更好地管理可配置的制造产品。该套件包括一种方法，用于预测以完整的详细信息配置级别对可配置产品的需求。这意味着预测独特的配置，每种配置都有预期的音量。该方法取决于从产品的销售历史记录中提取客户购买模式。研究的主要贡献是用于提取和表示这些模式的数学算法以及使用这些模式的预测。构建可配置产品所需的一组零件通常取决于选项的组合，因此不可能从汇总预测中计划零件要求。通过使用配置级别的预测，可以将每个唯一的配置扩展到组件零件，然后使用关联的量产生完整的零件预测。由于群众生产的商品产品在海外移动，因此美国制造商专门从事复杂，可配置的高端产品。允许客户自定义产品会导致大量替代产品配置。这种品种在许多方面增加了成本。一种重要的方法是规划零件要求的难度增加。目前根据一些流行变体进行规划的零件的做法导致某些零件和其他零件短缺的库存过多。过多的库存会产生持有和过时的成本。短缺会中断生产，并导致销售损失和质量问题。 Emcien开发了一种方法，该方法包括许多其他好处可以提高零件计划的准确性。