Collaborative Proposal: The Roles of Clouds and their Accomplices in Modulating the Trajectory of the Arctic System

合作提案：云及其同伙在调节北极系统轨迹中的作用

• 批准号: 0629360
• 负责人: Axel Schweiger
• 金额: $ 27.2万
• 依托单位: University of Washington
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2006
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2006-09-01 至 2011-08-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=0629360&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Collaborative; Proposal; Roles; Clouds; their

PROJECT ABSTRACTTitle: The Roles of Clouds and their Accomplices in Modulating the Trajectory of the Arctic The overarching objectives of the proposed effort are to identify and evaluate relationships between cloud properties, surface radiation fluxes, horizontal heat and moisture transport, large-scale circulation patterns, sea ice extent, and melt onset in past conditions when Arctic change was moderate, and in the future, which models project will be characterized by dramatic loss of permanent ice. Certain cloud-related interactions that were insignificant in the past may play more mid-latitude-like roles as the Arctic's ice disappears, such as exerting an overall cooling rather than warming influence. The proposed effort is aligned with the new directions of the ARCSS program, as it will improve our understanding of linkages among components of the Arctic system, build upon previous work and integrate existing data sets, address cross-cutting questions, investigate causes of spatial and temporal variability, and investigate relationships among components in a range of space and time scales. Data products are not expected from this study, thus a specific plan for data archival is not included.Intellectual merit: Existing data sets and reanalysis products will be combined with global climate model (GCM) simulations to identify and evaluate important factors affecting downwelling surface radiation fluxes, and how these influences vary: 1) in the past during large-scale and large-magnitude shifts in the climate system; 2) among model simulations of the past; 3) owing to local and remote variability; 4) seasonally; 5) and in model projections of future conditions. The expected outcome is a more complete understanding of processes and conditions affecting Arctic cloud properties, the ability of GCMs to simulate observed relationships among cloud properties and factors that influence them, which cloud-related parameters exert either enhancing or dampening effects on Arctic ice loss, and how those effects can be expected to evolve in the future as the Arctic system continues on its trajectory toward a new state.Broader Impacts: By its very nature, this project is interdisciplinary and cross-cutting. It focuses on relationships and interactions among various components of the climate system, both within and outside the Arctic, and how these relationships might change in the future. The relationships initially targeted encompass a variety of spatial and temporal scales. The broader impacts of the work, consequently, are naturally extensive across the scientific community. Graduate students at three universities will participate directly and/or indirectly in the project -- one explicitly at the University of Wisconsin -- and the methodology and results will provide new fodder for courses related to climate change. Ultimately the findings should contribute to better informing policy makers, which will benefit society as a whole. The Polar Science Center at the University of Washington has just completed its first annual Polar Science Weekend hosted by the pacific Science Center in Seattle. A combination of exhibits, demonstrations and lectures brought various aspects of polar research to approximately 5,000 participants, including K-12 classes and the general public. A module based on the roles of clouds in Arctic change will be developed for the events planned for 2008 and 2009.

项目摘要标题：云及其同伙在调节北极轨迹中的作用拟议工作的首要目标是识别和评估云特性、表面辐射通量、水平热量和水分输送、大规模环流模式、在过去北极变化温和的情况下，海冰范围和融化开始，而在未来，该模型预测将以永久冰的急剧损失为特征。随着北极冰的消失，某些过去微不足道的与云相关的相互作用可能会发挥更多类似中纬度的作用，例如产生整体变冷而不是变暖的影响。拟议的努力与 ARCSS 计划的新方向保持一致，因为它将提高我们对北极系统组成部分之间联系的理解，以以前的工作为基础，整合现有数据集，解决跨领域问题，调查空间和影响的原因。时间变异性，并研究一系列空间和时间尺度内各成分之间的关​​系。本研究预计不会产生数据产品，因此不包括数据归档的具体计划。 智力价值：现有数据集和再分析产品将与全球气候模型（GCM）模拟相结合，以识别和评估影响下降流表面辐射的重要因素通量，以及这些影响如何变化：1）过去气候系统发生大规模和大幅度变化期间； 2）过去的模型模拟； 3) 由于本地和远程的变化； 4）季节性； 5）以及对未来状况的模型预测。预期的结果是更全面地了解影响北极云特性的过程和条件，GCM 模拟观察到的云特性和影响它们的因素之间的关系的能力，这些云相关参数对北极冰损失发挥增强或抑制作用，以及随着北极系统继续朝着新状态发展的轨迹，这些影响在未来将如何演变。更广泛的影响：就其本质而言，该项目是跨学科和跨领域的。它重点关注北极内外气候系统各个组成部分之间的关​​系和相互作用，以及这些关系在未来可能如何变化。最初针对的关系涵盖各种空间和时间尺度。因此，这项工作的更广泛影响自然会广泛影响整个科学界。三所大学的研究生将直接和/或间接参与该项目（其中一所是威斯康星大学），其方法和结果将为与气候变化相关的课程提供新的素材。最终，研究结果应有助于决策者更好地了解情况，这将使整个社会受益。华盛顿大学极地科学中心刚刚完成了由西雅图太平洋科学中心主办的首届年度极地科学周末活动。展览、演示和讲座相结合，为大约 5,000 名参与者（包括 K-12 班级和公众）带来了极地研究的各个方面。将为 2008 年和 2009 年计划的活动开发一个基于云在北极变化中的作用的模块。