SGER: Vulnerability Beliefs and Actions Following a Tornado Disaster

SGER：龙卷风灾难后的脆弱性信念和行动

• 批准号: 0634901
• 负责人: Jerry Suls
• 金额: --
• 依托单位: University of Iowa
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2006
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2006-08-01 至 2008-01-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=0634901&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: SGER; Vulnerability; Beliefs; Actions; Following

AbstractOn April 13, 2006, at least five F-2 tornadoes with wind speeds of 150 mph left a path of destruction 4 miles long and 1/3rd of a mile wide in downtown Iowa City the home of the University of Iowa. The storms inflicted serious injuries and extensive damage to several businesses, over 1,000 homes and apartments, and hundreds of automobiles. Many college students and permanent residents were forced to leave their homes because of storm damage. It is estimated that the storms resulted in at least $10 million in damages to public buildings and tens of millions more to private property. This natural disaster provides a unique, time-limited opportunity to examine important questions about perceptions of vulnerability. When people encounter a natural disaster that inflicts extensive injury and damage on their community, what effect does the experience have on their beliefs about vulnerability and preparedness for future disasters? Prior research with populations that have not experienced natural disaster or other kinds of major negative life events indicates that most people tend to believe they are less vulnerable (i.e., unrealistically optimistic) than their peers to future disasters. Less is known, however, about whether this belief changes when a significant negative event actually occurs. The proposed research will determine whether people return to unrealistic optimism and how this relates to future efforts aimed at emergency preparedness. Building on preliminary research with 220 participants contacted within 3-weeks after the tornadoes struck, this project will survey both community residents and college students who reside in Iowa City and were present at the time of the tornados to identify the trajectory of beliefs following a disaster and to advance knowledge about motivational and cognitive processes contributing to unrealistic optimism. Questionnaires/Interviews will be administered at 6- and 10-months post-disaster that contain the same items about beliefs, absolute risk, and objective likelihood. There also will be items about any experience with weather-related disasters or other major negative events since the April tornadoes. ANOVA, t-tests, correlations, and chi-square will be used to examine differences as afunction of subject groupings. The tests of changes over time will be assessed with growth curve analysis. ANOVA (or ANCOVA with demographics) will be used to assess differences across cross-sectional samples. Multiple regression will be used to examine the role of potential moderators and mediators of beliefs and preventive behaviors. Because social psychologists conceptualize the illusion of non-vulnerability as one of the fundamental ways that people cope with uncertainty and anxiety about the future, the answers to these questions, in the context of natural disaster, are important and potentially can extend understanding about coping with disasters that affect entire communities. Findings from this research will address theoretical and practical questions about whether the degree of personal exposure and consequences of a disaster influence beliefs of non-vulnerability and emergency preparedness behaviors.

摘要 2006 年 4 月 13 日，至少五场风速为 150 英里/小时的 F-2 龙卷风在爱荷华大学所在地爱荷华市中心留下了一条长 4 英里、宽 1/3 英里的破坏路径。风暴对多家企业、1,000 多所住宅和公寓以及数百辆汽车造成严重伤害和广泛破坏。许多大学生和永久居民因风暴受损而被迫离开家园。据估计，风暴对公共建筑造成至少 1000 万美元的损失，对私人财产造成数千万美元的损失。这场自然灾害提供了一个独特的、有时限的机会来研究有关脆弱性认知的重要问题。 当人们遭遇自然灾害并对其社区造成广泛伤害和破坏时，这种经历会对他们关于脆弱性和对未来灾害做好准备的信念产生什么影响？先前对未经历过自然灾害或其他重大负面生活事件的人群进行的研究表明，大多数人倾向于认为，在未来的灾难面前，他们比同龄人更不容易受到伤害（即不切实际的乐观）。然而，当重大负面事件实际发生时，这种信念是否会改变，人们知之甚少。拟议的研究将确定人们是否会恢复不切实际的乐观态度，以及这与未来的应急准备工作有何关系。 该项目基于龙卷风袭击后 3 周内联系的 220 名参与者的初步研究，将对居住在爱荷华市并在龙卷风发生时在场的社区居民和大学生进行调查，以确定灾难后的信仰轨迹并增进有关导致不切实际的乐观情绪的动机和认知过程的知识。调查问卷/访谈将在灾后 6 个月和 10 个月进行，其中包含有关信念、绝对风险和客观可能性的相同项目。还将有关于自四月龙卷风以来与天气相关的灾难或其他重大负面事件的经历的项目。方差分析、t 检验、相关性和卡方将用于检查受试者分组的差异。随着时间的推移变化的测试将通过生长曲线分析进行评估。方差分析（或人口统计方差分析）将用于评估横截面样本之间的差异。多元回归将用于检查信念和预防行为的潜在调节者和中介者的作用。 由于社会心理学家将不脆弱的幻觉概念化为人们应对未来的不确定性和焦虑的基本方式之一，因此在自然灾害的背景下，这些问题的答案非常重要，并且有可能扩展对应对未来的理解。影响整个社区的灾难。 这项研究的结果将解决有关个人暴露程度和灾难后果是否影响非脆弱信念和应急准备行为的理论和实践问题。