SGER: Simple Indices of Climate Variability and Change

SGER：气候变率和变化的简单指数

基本信息

批准号：
0444284
负责人：
David Karoly
金额：
$ 2.49万
依托单位：
University of Oklahoma Norman Campus
依托单位国家：
美国
项目类别：
Standard Grant
财政年份：
2004
资助国家：
美国
起止时间：
2004-09-01 至 2005-08-31
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=0444284&HistoricalAwards=false
关键词：
SGER Simple Indices Climate Variability

项目摘要

Five simple indices of large-scale surface temperature variations will be used to assess the performance of a number of climate models in simulating climate variability and change during the 20th century. These indices are based on the spatial fingerprint of greenhouse climate change and include the area-mean surface temperature, the land-ocean temperature contrast, the meridional temperature gradient in the Northern Hemisphere, the magnitude of the annual cycle in temperature over land, and the magnitude of the diurnal temperature range over land. The indices will be calculated for the global domain and for the North American region from observational data for the period 1880-2003 and compared with data from model simulations for this period. The models to be analyzed include simulations from all three U.S. models (Community Climate System Model, at the National Center for Atmospheric Research at Boulder, Colorado; Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory model (GFDL) at Princeton; and Goddard Institute for Space Studies model (GISS) at New York City) being made available for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report, together with several other international models. The variability and correlation structure of the indices will be compared between the observations and the models on three different timescales: interannual variability, decadal variability and trends on 50 year and century timescales. This evaluation will provide greater confidence in using these models for climate change detection and attribution studies and for projection of future climate change.

将使用五个简单的大规模地表温度变化指数来评估一些气候模型在模拟20世纪气候变率和变化方面的表现。这些指数基于温室气候变化的空间指纹，包括面积平均表面温度、陆地-海洋温度对比、北半球经向温度梯度、陆地温度年循环幅度以及陆地上昼夜温差的大小。将根据 1880-2003 年期间的观测数据计算全球范围和北美地区的指数，并与该时期的模型模拟数据进行比较。要分析的模型包括所有三个美国模型的模拟（科罗拉多州博尔德国家大气研究中心的社区气候系统模型；普林斯顿大学的地球物理流体动力学实验室模型（GFDL）；以及戈达德空间研究所模型（GISS））在纽约市）与其他几个国际模型一起可供政府间气候变化专门委员会（IPCC）第四次评估报告使用。将比较三个不同时间尺度上的观测值和模型之间的指数变异性和相关性结构：年际变异性、年代际变异性以及 50 年和世纪时间尺度上的趋势。该评估将为使用这些模型进行气候变化检测和归因研究以及未来气候变化预测提供更大的信心。