Detection of Estuarine Salinity Change Due to Sea-Level Rise

海平面上升引起的河口盐度变化检测

• 批准号: 0444005
• 负责人: Raymond Najjar
• 金额: $ 5.9万
• 依托单位: Pennsylvania State Univ University Park
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2004
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2004-09-15 至 2005-08-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=0444005&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Detection; Estuarine; Salinity; Change; Due

Intellectual Merit. A method of detecting the impact of sea-level rise on estuarine salinity will be developed. The method exploits high temporal resolution records of salinity, streamflow and tidal stage in order to develop statistical models of the influence of rivers and tidal currents on salinity. The models are then applied to long-term salinity observations of lower temporal resolution. Sea-level rise is the expected main cause of trends in the residual (observed minus modeled). The method will be applied to several mid-Atlantic estuaries, where data records are long and relative sea-level rise is about twice the global average. Modeling studies and scaling arguments suggest that the sea-level signal is well above instrumental error. What is uncertain and what makes the research exploratory is (1) the accuracy to which tidal and riverine influences on salinity can be quantified and (2) whether the instrumental records are of sufficient length and resolution. Broader Impacts. Effective coastal management requires robust model predictions of estuarine salinity over the next 100 years. Models will be reliable only if they are calibrated with observations that clearly reveal a signal attributed to sea-level rise. This proposal is a first attempt to uncover such a signal. The method is general enough to be applied to any monitored estuary.

智力优点。将开发一种检测海平面上升对河口盐度影响的方法。 该方法利用盐度、水流和潮汐阶段的高时间分辨率记录来开发河流和潮汐流对盐度影响的统计模型。 然后将模型应用于较低时间分辨率的长期盐度观测。 海平面上升是残差趋势（观察值减去模型值）的预期主要原因。 该方法将应用于大西洋中部的几个河口，这些河口的数据记录很长，相对海平面上升约为全球平均水平的两倍。 模型研究和尺度论证表明海平面信号远高于仪器误差。 不确定性和探索性在于：（1）潮汐和河流对盐度影响的量化精度；（2）仪器记录是否具有足够的长度和分辨率。 更广泛的影响。有效的沿海管理需要对未来 100 年河口盐度进行可靠的模型预测。 只有根据能够清楚地揭示海平面上升信号的观测结果进行校准，模型才是可靠的。 该提议是发现此类信号的首次尝试。 该方法足够通用，可以应用于任何监测的河口。