DMUU: Workshops -- Climate Decision Making Under Uncertainty & Precautionary Principle in Climate Change Policy

DMUU：研讨会——不确定性下的气候决策

• 批准号: 0345870
• 负责人: W. Michael Hanemann
• 金额: --
• 依托单位: University of California-Berkeley
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2004
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2004-09-01 至 2009-09-30
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=0345870&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: DMUU; Workshops; Climate; Decision; Making

The goal of this project is to identify specific research needs with respect to the adequate representation of climate change uncertainties and the development of decision criteria and analytical tools for decision making in the face of these uncertainties, with particular emphasis on the formulation of adaptation and mitigation responses to climate change. This will be accomplished by organizing two workshops covering some important aspects of decision making in relation to climate change, viewed from both normative and positive perspectives. One workshop, Decision Making Under Uncertainty, will examine alternative approaches to the representation of uncertainty and alternative criteria for decision making under uncertainty considered from a variety of perspectives, both theoretical and empirical, including economics, psychology, and risk communication. The theoretical section of the workshop will bring together leading economic theorists; the empirical section of the workshop will focus on the meaningfulness to decision makers of alternative approaches to the representation of uncertainty and alternative criteria for decision making under uncertainty and their practicality in the context of the climate uncertainties and hydrology uncertainties at various different temporal and/or spatial scales. The second workshop, The Precautionary Principle in Climate Change Policy, explores the implications of recent economic research on the nature and significance of the irreversibility effect for the design and climate change policy.Almost all of the existing analyses of climate change are deterministic rather probabilistic in nature and concentrate on changes in mean temperature and precipitation. However, there is growing recognition among climate researchers of the need for analyses that account for changes in the variability of temperature and precipitation, some of which are likely to be felt in the near-term. These workshops will further the development of decision analytic tools that incorporate climate variability and uncertainty and therefore help public and private decision makers to address issues of adaptation and mitigation in the face of climate change. The proceedings of the two workshops will be posted on a web site and manuscripts will be prepared for peer-reviewed journals. This developmental award was supported as part of the Fiscal Year 2003 Human and Social Dynamics priority area special competition on Decision Making Under Uncertainty (DMUU).

该项目的目标是确定在充分代表气候变化不确定性方面的具体研究需求，并开发决策标准和分析工具，以供面对这些不确定性时进行决策，特别强调适应和减缓的制定应对气候变化。 这将通过组织两次研讨会来实现，从规范和积极的角度讨论与气候变化相关的决策的一些重要方面。 一个名为“不确定性下的决策”的研讨会将探讨不确定性表示的替代方法以及不确定性下决策的替代标准，从理论和实证的多种角度（包括经济学、心理学和风险沟通）进行考虑。 研讨会的理论部分将汇集领先的经济理论家；研讨会的实证部分将重点讨论不确定性表示的替代方法和不确定性下决策的替代标准对决策者的意义及其在不同时间和/或气候不确定性和水文不确定性背景下的实用性。空间尺度。 第二个研讨会“气候变化政策中的预防原则”探讨了近期经济研究对设计和气候变化政策的不可逆效应的性质和意义的影响。几乎所有现有的气候变化分析都是确定性的，而不是概率性的。自然并专注于平均温度和降水的变化。 然而，气候研究人员越来越认识到需要进行分析来解释温度和降水变化的变化，其中一些变化可能会在短期内感受到。 这些研讨会将进一步开发纳入气候变化和不确定性的决策分析工具，从而帮助公共和私人决策者解决面对气候变化的适应和缓解问题。 两个研讨会的会议记录将发布在网站上，手稿将提交给同行评审期刊。 该发展奖是 2003 财年人类和社会动态优先领域不确定性决策 (DMUU) 特别竞赛的一部分。