Collaborative Proposal: Model Knowledge and Scientific Judgment

协作提案:模型知识和科学判断

基本信息

  • 批准号:
    0327104
  • 负责人:
  • 金额:
    $ 9.1万
  • 依托单位:
  • 依托单位国家:
    美国
  • 项目类别:
    Fixed Amount Award
  • 财政年份:
    2003
  • 资助国家:
    美国
  • 起止时间:
    2003-09-15 至 2004-05-31
  • 项目状态:
    已结题

项目摘要

A central issue in science studies is the relationship between evidence and hypothesis. But science studies is not the only discipline that investigates this relationship. Science studies has too long neglected the half-century's worth of fascinating and important empirical literature we call Ameliorative Psychology. A central finding of Ameliorative Psychology is that statistical prediction rules (or SPRs) are generally more reliable (and usually significantly more reliable) than human experts when it comes to making predictions about practically important matters (Meehl 1954, Sawyer 1966, Dawes 1994). This literature offers effective reasoning strategies that have undergone repeated and successful empirical tests. This proposal is to develop and articulate a view of human knowledge and reasoning that takes Ameliorative Psychology seriously as an exemplification of reasoning excellence. It intends to extract from the literature what science has learned about good reasoning, and then apply those lessons back to individual reasoners and social institutions, including the institutions of science. The new position is defined as strategic reliabilism: Reasoning excellence involves the efficient allocation of cognitive resources to robustly reliable reasoning strategies. Strategic reliabilism is an explicitly cost-benefit-based epistemology for real, bounded knowers. Epistemology is the branch of philosophy concerned with knowledge and good reasoning. The proposal will liberate epistemology from the scholastic debates of analytic philosophy and treat it as a branch of the philosophy of science: Normative epistemology is to be properly understood and investigated as an essential, though often implicit, feature of cognitive science. The PIs will bring the skills and interests of the philosopher of science to epistemology by unearthing and clarifying the philosophical (in this case, epistemological) presuppositions of a particular branch of science (in this case, psychology). A novel theory about how best to reason about empirical matters, especially one that comes with a half-century's worth of empirical support, is bound to have broad and significant impact. Here are four such impacts: (1) The view of reasoning excellence we extract from Ameliorative Psychology naturally suggests a number of concrete useable lessons about how people can improve their reasoning about causation, diagnosis, and cost-benefit analysis (among other issues). The proposal's aim is to begin to employ the underutilized power of science to improve people's reasoning about important issues. (2) SPRs are currently being used by institutions to make some very important decisions that deeply affect people's lives (from medical diagnoses to credit decisions). The use of SPRs by social institutions is a significant (and largely ignored) way in which science is affecting society. The project will offer a clear articulation of the principles and assumptions underlying Ameliorative Psychology. (3) The view of reasoning excellence we extract from the Ameliorative Psychology can suggest alternative decision-procedures for social institutions. However, there are still many social institutions that have yet to heed the advice of the SPR literature, including diagnostics for mental illness, predicting violent behavior, and admissions to graduate and professional school. (4) The predictive models developed by Ameliorative Psychology are especially valuable for reasoning about complex phenomena about which one has many different lines of evidence. This is a perfectly accurate description of the task facing those who are charged with assessing science at various levels. Philosophers, historians and sociologists of science take the huge mass of data that is the history of science and try to draw general lessons about the methods and theories of science. Those scientists on grant review boards also make assessments about the promise of various projects by considering and weighing a number of different lines of evidence. It is ironic that those who assess science have not used methods that have the strongest scientific support. This is true for individuals extracting lessons from the history of science (Faust & Meehl 1992), and for scientific institutions rating scientific grant proposals (NIH Panel Report, 1996, especially section 5).
科学研究的一个中心问题是证据与假设之间的关系。但科学研究并不是研究这种关系的唯一学科。科学研究长期以来忽视了半个世纪以来我们称之为“改善心理学”的引人入胜且重要的实证文献。改善心理学的一个核心发现是,在对实际重要问题进行预测时,统计预测规则(或 SPR)通常比人类专家更可靠(并且通常明显更可靠)(Meehl 1954,Sawyer 1966,Dawes 1994)。该文献提供了有效的推理策略,这些策略已经过反复且成功的实证检验。 该提案旨在发展和阐明人类知识和推理的观点,认真对待改善心理学作为卓越推理的例证。它打算从文献中提取科学关于良好推理的知识,然后将这些教训应用到个人推理者和社会机构,包括科学机构。新的立场被定义为战略可靠性主义:卓越推理涉及将认知资源有效分配给稳健可靠的推理策略。战略可靠性主义对于真正的、有限的知识者来说是一种明确的基于成本效益的认识论。 认识论是哲学的一个分支,涉及知识和良好的推理。该提案将把认识论从分析哲学的学术争论中解放出来,并将其视为科学哲学的一个分支:规范认识论应作为认知科学的一个基本特征(尽管常常是隐含的)得到正确的理解和研究。 PI 将通过挖掘和澄清特定科学分支(在本例中为心理学)的哲学(在本例中为认识论)预设,将科学哲学家的技能和兴趣带入认识论。一种关于如何最好地推理经验问题的新颖理论,尤其是具有半个世纪经验支持的理论,必将产生广泛而重大的影响。以下是四个这样的影响:(1)我们从改善心理学中提取的卓越推理的观点自然地提出了一些具体的有用的教训,关于人们如何改进对因果关系、诊断和成本效益分析(以及其他问题)的推理。该提案的目的是开始利用未充分利用的科学力量来改善人们对重要问题的推理。 (2)SPR目前被机构用来做出一些深刻影响人们生活的非常重要的决策(从医疗诊断到信贷决策)。社会机构对 SPR 的使用是科学影响社会的一种重要(但在很大程度上被忽视)的方式。该项目将清晰阐述改善心理学的原则和假设。 (3) 我们从改良心理学中提取的卓越推理观点可以为社会机构提供替代的决策程序。然而,仍有许多社会机构尚未听取 SPR 文献的建议,包括精神疾病的诊断、暴力行为的预测以及研究生和职业学校的招生。 (4) 改善心理学开发的预测模型对于推理具有许多不同证据的复杂现象特别有价值。这是对那些负责评估不同层次的科学的人所面临的任务的完美准确的描述。科学哲学家、历史学家和社会学家利用科学史的大量数据,试图得出有关科学方法和理论的一般教训。拨款审查委员会的科学家还通过考虑和权衡许多不同的证据来评估各种项目的前景。具有讽刺意味的是,那些评估科学的人并没有使用有最强有力的科学支持的方法。对于从科学史中汲取教训的个人(Faust & Meehl 1992)以及对科学拨款提案进行评级的科学机构(NIH 小组报告,1996,特别是第 5 节)来说,情况都是如此。

项目成果

期刊论文数量(0)
专著数量(0)
科研奖励数量(0)
会议论文数量(0)
专利数量(0)

数据更新时间:{{ journalArticles.updateTime }}

{{ item.title }}
{{ item.translation_title }}
  • DOI:
    {{ item.doi }}
  • 发表时间:
    {{ item.publish_year }}
  • 期刊:
  • 影响因子:
    {{ item.factor }}
  • 作者:
    {{ item.authors }}
  • 通讯作者:
    {{ item.author }}

数据更新时间:{{ journalArticles.updateTime }}

{{ item.title }}
  • 作者:
    {{ item.author }}

数据更新时间:{{ monograph.updateTime }}

{{ item.title }}
  • 作者:
    {{ item.author }}

数据更新时间:{{ sciAawards.updateTime }}

{{ item.title }}
  • 作者:
    {{ item.author }}

数据更新时间:{{ conferencePapers.updateTime }}

{{ item.title }}
  • 作者:
    {{ item.author }}

数据更新时间:{{ patent.updateTime }}

John Trout其他文献

John Trout的其他文献

{{ item.title }}
{{ item.translation_title }}
  • DOI:
    {{ item.doi }}
  • 发表时间:
    {{ item.publish_year }}
  • 期刊:
  • 影响因子:
    {{ item.factor }}
  • 作者:
    {{ item.authors }}
  • 通讯作者:
    {{ item.author }}

{{ truncateString('John Trout', 18)}}的其他基金

Noncommutative Geometry Festival 2020
2020 年非交换几何节
  • 批准号:
    1955305
  • 财政年份:
    2020
  • 资助金额:
    $ 9.1万
  • 项目类别:
    Standard Grant
Strict Quantization, Elliptic Operators, and E-Theory
严格量化、椭圆算子和 E 理论
  • 批准号:
    0071120
  • 财政年份:
    2000
  • 资助金额:
    $ 9.1万
  • 项目类别:
    Standard Grant
Mathematical Sciences: Topological Index for Proper Actions, Asymptotic Homomorphisms and Equivariant E-Theory
数学科学:适当作用的拓扑索引、渐近同态和等变 E 理论
  • 批准号:
    9706767
  • 财政年份:
    1997
  • 资助金额:
    $ 9.1万
  • 项目类别:
    Standard Grant

相似国自然基金

指向提议者的共情关怀对第三方惩罚行为的影响:心理、脑与计算机制
  • 批准号:
    32371102
  • 批准年份:
    2023
  • 资助金额:
    50 万元
  • 项目类别:
    面上项目
经济博弈中提议者对先前第三方干预者的分配公平性研究
  • 批准号:
  • 批准年份:
    2020
  • 资助金额:
    24 万元
  • 项目类别:
    青年科学基金项目
基于深度层次特征相似性度量的视觉跟踪方法研究
  • 批准号:
    61773397
  • 批准年份:
    2017
  • 资助金额:
    65.0 万元
  • 项目类别:
    面上项目
构造类型专家系统及其开发工具的研究
  • 批准号:
    68875006
  • 批准年份:
    1988
  • 资助金额:
    2.0 万元
  • 项目类别:
    面上项目

相似海外基金

NSF GEO-NERC: Collaborative Proposal: A general model for bubble nucleation and growth in volcanic systems
NSF GEO-NERC:协作提案:火山系统中气泡成核和生长的通用模型
  • 批准号:
    2211684
  • 财政年份:
    2022
  • 资助金额:
    $ 9.1万
  • 项目类别:
    Standard Grant
CRCNS Research Proposal: Collaborative Research: US-German Collaboration toward a biophysically principled network model of transcranial magnetic stimulation (TMS)
CRCNS 研究提案:合作研究:美德合作建立经颅磁刺激 (TMS) 的生物物理原理网络模型
  • 批准号:
    10708986
  • 财政年份:
    2022
  • 资助金额:
    $ 9.1万
  • 项目类别:
CRCNS Research Proposal: Collaborative Research: US-German Collaboration toward a biophysically principled network model of transcranial magnetic stimulation (TMS)
CRCNS 研究提案:合作研究:美德合作建立经颅磁刺激 (TMS) 的生物物理原理网络模型
  • 批准号:
    10610594
  • 财政年份:
    2022
  • 资助金额:
    $ 9.1万
  • 项目类别:
GOALI: Collaborative Proposal: Novel approaches to model travel behavior and sustainability impacts of e-bike use
目标:协作提案:对出行行为和电动自行车使用的可持续性影响进行建模的新方法
  • 批准号:
    1706939
  • 财政年份:
    2018
  • 资助金额:
    $ 9.1万
  • 项目类别:
    Standard Grant
GOALI: Collaborative Proposal: Novel approaches to model travel behavior and sustainability impacts of e-bike use
目标:协作提案:对出行行为和电动自行车使用的可持续性影响进行建模的新方法
  • 批准号:
    1706695
  • 财政年份:
    2018
  • 资助金额:
    $ 9.1万
  • 项目类别:
    Standard Grant
{{ showInfoDetail.title }}

作者:{{ showInfoDetail.author }}

知道了