Dynamics of the Boreal Summer Intraseasonal Oscillation

北方夏季季节内振荡的动力学

• 批准号: 0329531
• 负责人: Bin Wang
• 金额: $ 45.22万
• 依托单位: University of Hawaii
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Continuing Grant
• 财政年份: 2003
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2003-10-01 至 2007-09-30
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=0329531&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Dynamics; Boreal; Summer; Intraseasonal; Oscillation

This project continues prior research to elucidate mechanisms responsible for the tropical intraseasonal oscillation, also known as the Madden-Julian Oscillation. Successful dynamical forecasts of this oscillation may bridge the gap between medium-range weather forecasting and seasonal climate prediction. This study will examine the underlying physics controlling the boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation and attempt to understanding its relationship to air-sea interactions and summer mean precipitation. Attention will also be given to explaining why the equatorial eastern Indian Ocean is a preferred region for amplification of the intraseasonal oscillation. Both diagnostic and modeling studies are supplemented by long-term NCEP reanalysis data and high-resolution satellite data; these will be used to validate the multi-model ensemble simulations.The subject of the research is considered important by the community, and may lead to better medium-range forecasts and better forecasts of El Nino, while making a positive impact on poor countries which would benefit greatly from improved medium-range to seasonal forecasts. Based on the P.I.'s prolific publishing history, it is expected that the results of this research will be disseminated via meetings and publications in internationally-recognized scientific journals.

该项目继续之前的研究，以阐明热带季节内振荡（也称为马登-朱利安振荡）的机制。对这种振荡的成功动态预测可能会弥补中期天气预报和季节性气候预测之间的差距。这项研究将研究控制北方夏季季节内振荡的基本物理原理，并试图了解其与海气相互作用和夏季平均降水的关系。还将重点解释为什么赤道东印度洋是放大季节内振荡的首选区域。诊断和建模研究均得到长期 NCEP 再分析数据和高分辨率卫星数据的补充；这些将用于验证多模式集合模拟。该研究主题被业界认为很重要，可能会带来更好的中期预报和厄尔尼诺现象的更好预报，同时对贫困国家产生积极影响将从改进的中期到季节性预测中受益匪浅。基于 P.I. 丰富的出版历史，预计这项研究的结果将通过会议和在国际公认的科学期刊上发表出版物来传播。