WCR: Effect of Changes in Climate, Snow Pack, Glaciers, and Permafrost on River Runoff in Tien Shan, Central Asia

WCR：气候、积雪、冰川和永久冻土变化对中亚天山河流径流的影响

• 批准号: 0233583
• 负责人: Vladimir Aizen
• 金额: $ 38万
• 依托单位: Regents of the University of Idaho
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2003
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2003-02-01 至 2006-01-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=0233583&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: WCR; Effect; Changes; Climate; Snow

0233583Aizen The evaluation of the long-term dynamics of water cycle components in the World's largest closed drainage system has not been examined in detail. Location of the Tien Shan and rich data provide a unique opportunity to assess the pathways of water among hydrological surface and subsurface reservoirs and to quantify the precipitation partitioning among land surface stores with different residence times. The main objective of our research is estimating, simulating, and predicting the variability in water cycle components and water composition in the Central Asian alpine basins. This project proposes to: (1) Provide background information and evaluate the long-term changes in type and quantity of precipitation, evaporation, total river runoff and snow/glacier/permafrost runoff, major ions, pH, conductivity, and dissolved oxygen. This data will be posted at the University of Idaho web site (www.mines.uidaho.edu/~aizen/aizen.html). (2) Discover the controls on the water chemistry (changes in glacier, snow, and permafrost river runoff, atmospheric deposition, rock weathering, etc.). Define the input/output chemical budget emphasizing on the watershed geology. (3) Implement modular-design, deterministic, distributed-parameter modeling systems: i.e., "Precipitation Runoff Modeling System" and/or snow-ice simulation with "Snowmelt Runoff Model" in application with the operational runoff modeling, which simulates active layer freezing and thawing. Geochemical modeling includes specification of the various elements and determination of saturation indices for various metals based on MINTEQA2 and WATEQ. Mass-balance calculations will be facilitated by computer codes such as BALANCE, NETPATH and PHREEQE. Validation of simulation results will be based on data sets other than those used in model calibration. (4) Develop and validate the transition from small hydrological units to complex geographical systems through the scaling relationships and to determine the distribution of point measurements. Three representative sub-basins will be used to determine water balances using data during each time step (daily, monthly, seasonally, and annually). (5) Apply climate scenarios to assess the climate-driven impact on future water resources and model the effect of global warming on water chemistry. The basis of this integrative research is the collaboration with the Central Asian, the USA, the Japan, and the Chinese institutions.

0233583AIZEN尚未详细研究对世界上最大的封闭排水系统中水循环组件的长期动态的评估。 Tien Shan的位置和丰富的数据提供了一个独特的机会，可以评估水文表面和地下储层之间的水途径，并量化具有不同停留时间的陆地表面存储之间的降水分区。我们研究的主要目的是估计，模拟和预测中亚高山盆地水周期成分和水成分的变化。该项目建议：（1）提供背景信息并评估降水类型和数量的长期变化，蒸发，总河流径流和雪/冰川/冰川/冰冻径流，主要离子，pH值，电导率，电导率和溶解氧气。此数据将发布在爱达荷大学网站（www.mines.uidaho.edu/~aizen/aizen.html）上。 （2）发现对水化学的控制（冰川，雪和多年冻土河径流的变化，大气沉积，岩石风化等）。定义强调分水岭的输入/产出化学预算。 （3）实施模块化设计，确定性的，分布式参数建模系统：即，使用“降水径流建模系统”和/或Snow-Ice模拟，并在应用程序径流建模的应用中使用“融化径流径流模型”，从而模拟主动层的冻结和解冻。地球化学建模包括基于Minteqa2和Wateq的各种金属的各种元素的规范和确定饱和指数。平衡计算将通过计算机代码（例如Balance，NetPath和Phreeqe）来促进。模拟结果的验证将基于模型校准中使用的数据集。 （4）通过缩放关系开发和验证从小型水文单位到复杂地理系统的过渡，并确定点测量的分布。在每个时间步长（每天，每月，季节性和每年）中，将使用三个代表性的子巴斯金来确定使用数据的水平。 （5）应用气候情景来评估气候驱动的对未来水资源的影响，并建模全球变暖对水化学的影响。 这项综合研究的基础是与中亚，美国，日本和中国机构的合作。