The Use of Bounding Analysis in Risk Analysis

边界分析在风险分析中的应用

• 批准号: 0216897
• 负责人: M Granger Morgan
• 金额: $ 11.05万
• 依托单位: Carnegie-Mellon University
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2002
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2002-09-01 至 2004-08-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=0216897&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Use; Bounding; Analysis; Risk

The project will begin the development and demonstration of a new method to produce quantitative bounds on the risk that can be attributed to a set of environmental agents in circumstances in which conventional agent-by-agent "front-to-back" risk analysis produces results with extremely wide uncertainty bounds. The method will begin by summarizing available toxicological and epidemiological evidence on the end-point(s) in a form that facilitates easy comparisons. A constrained sum expert elicitation procedure will be developed which uses these data, together with expert judgment, to probabilistically attribute known and suspected causes of the health end-point to the observed cases. The result of this work should be a new set of methods which can be used by the risk analysis community in conjunction with more traditional risk analytic methods to bound the magnitude of possible health impacts from some types of environmental risks.

该项目将开始开发和演示一种新方法，在传统的逐个主体“从前到后”风险分析产生结果的情况下，对可归因于一组环境因素的风险产生定量界限具有极宽的不确定性界限。 该方法首先以易于比较的形式总结终点的现有毒理学和流行病学证据。 将开发一个约束总和专家启发程序，该程序使用这些数据以及专家判断，将健康终点的已知和可疑原因概率归因于观察到的病例。这项工作的结果应该是一套新的方法，风险分析界可以将其与更传统的风险分析方法结合使用，以限制某些类型的环境风险可能对健康产生影响的程度。