Mathematical Approaches to Epidemiological Studies of the Emergence, Re-Emergence and Persistence of Infectious Diseases

传染病出现、再次出现和持续存在的流行病学研究的数学方法

• 批准号: 0078250
• 负责人: Michael Li
• 金额: $ 10.5万
• 依托单位: Mississippi State University
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2000
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2000-09-01 至 2004-08-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=0078250&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Mathematical; Approaches; Epidemiological; Studies; Emergence

Li0078250 The investigator develops mathematical models to investigateseveral important epidemiological and ecological factors for theemergence, re-emergence and persistence of infectious diseases.The project has three goals: (1) to develop a new mathematicalframework in epidemiological modeling that links the humanpopulation to its environment, (2) to introduce and develop a newmathematical approach to the analysis of epidemic models, (3) tostimulate mathematical development of more effective analyticaland numerical tools for resolving important computational issuesarising from the model analysis. The work is carried out alongtwo main themes: Theme I. Develop a mathematical framework inepidemiological modeling using network models that takes intoaccount the full cycle of a disease in nature and encompassesthree interconnected key elements: human hosts, intermediatehosts and disease vectors, and environment. Theme II. Develop anapproach to the analysis of epidemic models using the method ofsingular perturbation to further our understanding of several keybiological issues such as robust mechanisms for cyclic temporalpatterns in disease incidence and the short-term evolution ofdisease pathogenicity. Computational issues arising from thelarge scale systems in network models and from the multiple timescales that are inherent in disease transmission processes arealso investigated. The global spread of infectious diseases and the emergenceof drug-resistant disease agents are causes for alarm at the endof the 20th century. As the world population continues toexplode, the world economies continue to become globalized,individual interactions and international travel continues toincrease, and the environment around the globe continues to bedevastated, the effective control and prevention of the globalspread of infectious diseases is destined to be one of the grandchallenges facing mankind in the new millennium. Essential to oursuccess in meeting this challenge is a renewed effort inepidemiological studies, a better understanding of thetransmission and spread mechanisms of various diseases, and moreeffective disease control and prevention measures based on thesestudies and the new understanding. While the nature and scale ofthe problems at hand inevitably limit the effectiveness ofexperimental approaches, mathematical modeling has proven to be avaluable approach and an indispensable tool for understanding theproblems, for testing hypotheses, and for predicting effectivemeasures of control and prevention. It is expected that resultsfrom the project can advance our understanding of the basicecological and epidemiological mechanisms for the emergence,re-emergence and persistence of infectious diseases and theirassociated temporal patterns, and improve the present theoreticalbasis for effective disease control and prevention strategies.

LI0078250研究者开发了数学模型，以调查维斯特的重要流行病学和生态因素，以实现感染性疾病的重新，重新出现和持久性。该项目具有三个目标：（1）开发一种新的数学框架，开发了一种将人类构图与其环境介绍的新数学模型（2）的新数学框架（2），并将其介绍为新的模型（2），（2）介绍了一个新的模型（2），并将其介绍为新的模型（2），并将其介绍为新的模型（2），并将其介绍为新的模型，并将其介绍为新的模型，并将其介绍到2）。 （3）从模型分析中解决重要的计算问题的更有效分析和数值工具的数学开发。 这项工作是按两个主要主题进行的：主题I。使用网络模型开发数学框架无处不在的模型，这些网络模型在自然界和包含互连的关键要素中涉及疾病的整个周期：人类宿主，中间主机和疾病媒介和环境。 主题II。 使用s扰扰动方法对流行模型的分析开发无关，以进一步了解我们对疾病发病率的循环颞patterns的鲁棒机制和疾病致病性的短期进化。 网络模型中的thelarge量表系统以及疾病传播过程中固有的多个时间尺度引起的计算问题。 传染病的全球传播和抗药性疾病剂的出现是20世纪末期引起警报的原因。 随着世界人口的继续爆炸，世界经济继续变得全球化，个人互动和国际旅行继续进行，全球环境继续进行臭名昭著，有效的控制和预防是传染病的有效控制和预防，注定是在新千年中面临人类面临的孙子之一。 对我们满足这一挑战至关重要的是，一项重新努力的不存在人工学研究，对各种疾病的thersmission和传播机制有了更好的了解，以及基于这些疾病和新理解的疾病控制和预防措施。 尽管手动问题的性质和规模不可避免地限制了实验性方法的有效性，但事实证明，数学建模是可用的方法，也是理解问题，测试假设以及预测控制和预防有效性的必不可少的工具。 可以预期，该项目可以提高我们对传染病及其相关时间模式的出现，重新出现和持久性的出现，重新出现和持久性的基础生态和流行病学机制的理解，并改善有效的疾病控制和预防策略的当前理论基础。