A Dynamical Systems Approach to Observing and Predicting Seismicity

观测和预测地震活动的动力系统方法

• 批准号: 9005300
• 负责人: John Rudnicki
• 金额: $ 5万
• 依托单位: Northwestern University
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 1990
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 1990-08-15 至 1992-07-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=9005300&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Dynamical; Systems; Approach; Observing; Predicting

This research is an investigation of the practical applications of the theories of chaos towards understanding and predicting the random aspects of seismicity. If successful, these methods hold great promise for becoming a practical method of predicting earthquakes on any chaotic fault system. Utilizing earlier promising results, this work will estimate the amount of time that any deterministic model reflects the initial conditions rather than the chaotic nature of fault systems. A test will be made of two recently proposed, attractor-based methods of predicting seismicity on those fault systems. This research is a component of the National Earthquake Hazard Reduction Program.

这项研究是对混乱理论在理解和预测地震性随机方面的实际应用的研究。 如果成功的话，这些方法将成为预测任何混乱断层系统地震的实用方法的巨大希望。 利用早期有希望的结果，这项工作将估计任何确定性模型反映了最初条件而不是断层系统的混乱性的时间。 将对最近提出的基于吸引人的两种预测这些断层系统地震性的方法进行测试。 这项研究是国家地震危害计划的组成部分。