旅游季节性测度指标的敏感度研究

旅游季节性测度指标的敏感度研究

Commonly used tourism seasonality measurement indicators include the Seasonal Intensity Index (Rsd), Gini coefficient (G), Theil coefficient (T), Seasonal Ratio (Rsr), and Unevenness Coefficient (Rhl), etc. Domestic and foreign scholars still have disputes about their mutual relationships and the degree of influence of passenger flow changes on various indicators. Construct the sensitivity indicators of tourism seasonality measurement indicators, namely the passenger flow change effect si and the relative passenger flow change effect pi. Calculate the correlation coefficients of various tourism seasonality measurement indicators under different tourism seasonality strength scales (Int) and μ_si, μ_si^*, and μ_pi^* of various tourism seasonality measurement indicators for each month under the combined conditions of different tourism seasonality strength scales (Int) and different passenger flow change magnitude scales (Δ) through the Monte Carlo method. It is found that: (1) The correlation coefficients of the three indicators Rsd, G, and T are extremely high. The correlation coefficients of Rsr with the three indicators Rsd, G, and T increase with the increase of Int, and the correlation coefficients between Rhl and the four indicators Rsd, G, T, and Rsr decrease with the increase; (2) Rsr and Rhl for Si of each month and Rsd, G, T, Rsr for μ_si, μ_si^*, and μ_pi^* of different months are all affected by Int and Δ, and their magnitudes and rankings change accordingly. That is, in different tourist destinations, the strength of seasonality and the magnitude of passenger flow changes will lead to differences in the sensitivity and ranking of various tourism seasonality measurement indicators to passenger flow changes in different months. Therefore, it cannot be simply considered that a certain indicator is more sensitive to passenger flow in peak and off-peak seasons or to passenger flow changes in the shoulder season.

常用的旅游季节性测度指标有季节性强度指数（Rsd）、基尼系数（G）、泰尔系数（T）、季节性比率（Rsr）、不均匀系数（Rhl）等，国内外学者对其相互关系、客流变动对各项指标的影响程度仍存在争议。构建旅游季节性测度指标的敏感度指标客流量变动效应si和客流量相对变动效应pi，通过蒙特卡洛方法计算不同旅游季节性强弱尺度（Int）下的各项旅游季节性测度指标的相关系数、以及不同旅游季节性强弱尺度（Int）和不同客流量变动大小尺度（Δ）的组合条件下各项旅游季节性测度指标对各个月份的μ_si、μ_si^*和μ_pi^*，发现（1）Rsd、G、T 3项指标相关系数极高，Rsr与Rsd、G、T 3项指标的相关系数随着Int的增大而增大，Rhl与Rsd、G、T、Rsr 4项指标间的相关系数随着的增大而减小；（2）Rsr和Rhl对各月份的Si以及Rsd、G、T、Rsr对不同月份的μ_si、μ_si^*及μ_pi^*均受Int和Δ的影响，其大小及排序相应产生变动，即在不同的旅游地，其季节性的强弱和客流量变动的大小都会导致各项旅游季节性测度指标对不同月份客流量变动的敏感度及排序存在差异，因此不能简单的认为某项指标对淡旺季客流或平季客流量变动更敏感。